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Panorama Internazionale

17 SETTEMBRE 2018

20:04 - Argentina

ARGENTINA: AGRO, PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION AND TOURISM TO GET OUT OF THE RECESSION

(ICE) - ROMA, 17 SET -

The government acknowledges that the statistics will not show favorable numbers but despite that, it will feel an improvement in the people's pocket during the presidential elections of 2019. They evaluate that the jump of the dollar of more than 100% in a year necessarily boost economic activity, although the impact will be greater in rural areas than in urban centers. The push will be given by the largest crop, which will contribute 1.5 points, 0.2 of the industry for the reactivation of Brazil and the spill of agriculture, 0.4 of construction due to the low cost, 0.3 of the financial intermediation and 0.1 of Health and Education. The rest of the services and taxes would subtract 0.9 points from the growth of the year.

The devaluation brought some advantages. On the one hand, exports become more competitive, while imports become more expensive, acting as a barrier to the entry of foreign products, which can give the industrial sector a boost. On the other hand, costs in dollars were reduced and this can be an incentive for investments such as construction or energy, especially in Vaca Muerta, although it must also be borne in mind that a large part of the inputs are tied to the value of dollar.

From the point of view of demand, private consumption would fall by 2.8% due to the low dynamism of employment and the fall in real wages, while consumption and public investment would contract 1.1%. In favor they will play a decline of 0.3% in imports, and an advance of 3.1% in exports and 2.1% in private investment, mainly in construction, energy and communications, tourism and services exports.

(ICE BUENOS AIRES)